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Inflation Drops to 15.90% in November 2017; 0.01% Lower Than 15.91% October Rate – NBS

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The National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, Dec 18, 2017, released the CPI and Inflation Report for November year with the country recording a drop in headline Inflation of 15.90% in November 2017; 0.01% Lower Than 15.91% October Rate.

All Item Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 15.90 percent (year-on-year) in November 2017. This was 0.01 percent points lower than the rate recorded in October (15.91) percent making it the tenth consecutive disinflation (slowdown in the inflation rate though still positive) in headline year on year inflation since January 2017.

Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yield the Headline Index.

On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.78 percent in November 2017, 0.02 percent points higher from the rate of 0.76 percent recorded in October. This represents the first rise in the month on month inflation following five consecutive months of month contraction in headline inflation since May 2017.

The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve month period ending in November 2017 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve month period was 16.76 percent, showing 0.21 percent point lower from 16.97 percent recorded in October 2017.

On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.85 percent in November, up by 0.03 from 0.82 percent recorded in October, while the rural index rose by 0.724 percent in November, up by 0.009 when compared with 0.715 percent in October.

The corresponding twelve-months year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 17.26 percent in November. This is less than 17.57 percent reported in October 2017, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in November is 16.29 percent compared to 16.41 percent recorded in October 2017.

Food Index
High year on year food prices and food price pressure continued into November though consistently at a slower pace month on month. The Food Index increased by 20.30 percent (year-on-year) in November, down marginally by 0.01 percent points from the rate recorded in October (20.31 percent).

On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 0.88 percent in November, up by 0.03 percent from 0.85 percent recorded in October. This represents the first rise in months on month rise following five consecutive disinflations in the month on month inflation since a 2017 high of 2.57% in May 2017.

The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in November 2017 over the previous twelve-month average was 19.39 percent, 0.25 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in October (19.14) percent.

The rise in the index was caused by increases in prices of bread and cereal, milk, cheese, eggs, coffee, tea, cocoa, fish and Oil and fats.  

All Items Less Farm Produce/Core Inflation

The ‘’All Items less Farm Produce’’ or Core sub-index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural, stood during the month of November at 12.20 percent points, up from 12.14 percent recorded in October as all key divisions which contribute to the index increased.

On a month-on-month basis, the Core sub-index increased by 0.77 percent in November, higher from 0.76 percent recorded in October.

The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 13.93 percent for the twelve-month period ending in November 2017; this is 0.48 percent points lower than 14.41 percent recorded in October.

The highest increases were recorded in prices of motorcycles, bicycles, glassware, and tableware, hospital and medical services, spirits, household textiles, insurance, accommodation services, maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, Vehicle spare parts, Other services in respect of personal transport equipment, and Fuel and lubricants for personal transport equipment.  

State Profiles
In analyzing price movements under this section, note that the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across States. Accordingly, the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from State to State making inter-State comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading

All Items Inflation
In November 2017, all items inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Bauchi (23.63%), Nasarawa (19.90%) and Kebbi (19.22%), while Kogi (11.27%), Edo (13.11%) and Delta States (13.75) recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

On a month on month basis however, November 2017 all items inflation was highest in Bauchi (1.6%), Katsina (1.44%) and Oyo (1.43%), while Plateau (0%), Edo (0.07%) Benue (0.21%) recorded the lowest month on month all item inflation in November 2017

Food Inflation

In November 2017, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kwara (28.11%), Ebonyi (25.03%) and Nasarawa (24.95%) while Kogi (13.25%), Benue (15.19%) and Bauchi (15.42%) and recorded the slowest rise in food inflation.

On a month on month basis however, November 2017 food inflation was highest in Oyo and Ebonyi (1.96%), and FCT/Abuja (1.93%), while Akwa Ibom (-0.69%), Plateau (-0.13%), and Benue (-0.06%) which recorded food price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate) in November recorded the lowest food inflation in November 2017.

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